Market Update: Rates Ended Last Week Trending Lower but Upcoming Jobs Reports Could Change Things

Blog posted On March 04, 2024

Rates trended higher throughout much of last week, but Friday’s economic data helped bring some relief. This week’s jobs reports have a strong influence on rate trends. Let’s take a look at what the week could hold.

Friday’s rate reversal recap

Though rates started Friday trending higher, weak economic data from the consumer confidence report and ISM manufacturing index caused rates to trend lower by the end of the day. Within the ISM index, prices and employment numbers were both lower, signaling lower inflation and weaker manufacturing job growth. Weak jobs & inflation data = good for rates. We should get confirmation on this manufacturing job growth this Friday with the collection of employment situation reports.

This week’s spotlights…

Wednesday

1. ADP nonfarm employment change from February*
2. Job openings on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)* from January

Friday

3. Employment situation reports from February
   1. Average workweek
   2. Average hourly earnings*
   3. Manufacturing payrolls
   4. Nonfarm payrolls*
   5. Government payrolls
   6. Private payrolls
   7. Unemployment rate*
   8. Participation rate

* = more important/influential reports

Sources: Bloomberg, MBS Highway, Mortgage News Daily